Bitcoin's price has slightly recovered from its sharp dip below $29,000, only more often than not, the by month has non been generous to Bitcoin (BTC) and Ether (ETH). Bitcoin has failed to break the $twoscore,000 resistance multiple times, and the contempo dip to a six-month low at $28,800 was a startling sign for many investors.

After an incredible beginning in 2021, Ether peaked at $4,380 on May 12 but has dropped 55% since then. Unlike the leading cryptocurrency, the Ethereum network faces contest from projects that exercise not depend on proof-of-piece of work, hence not facing the bottleneck issues that acquired transaction fees to skyrocket.

Whenever markets disappoint traders with a negative surprise, traders rapidly seek external explanations for their failure to interpret signals. But, in reality, a clear indication that China was concerned most the crypto mining free energy consumption came out on Apr thirty, six weeks alee of the initial price crash.

On May 6, recently confirmed United States Securities and Exchange Commission chair Gary Gensler punted to congress on providing more regulatory oversight to the crypto space. Nevertheless, in defense of excessively optimistic investors, similar promises accept circulated for over four years.

Regardless of the many reasons behind the recent negative market performance, traders like to blame someone for their mistakes, and what ameliorate scapegoat than derivatives markets?

Cointelegraph was the first news outlet to analyze the $2.v-billion Bitcoin futures expiry, potentially giving bears a $450-million atomic number 82 if the price fails to hold $32,000 on Fri. On June 12, Cointelegraph said that Ether'southward $i.5-billion monthly options expiry would be a make-or-interruption moment, every bit 73% of the neutral-to-bullish options would exist worthless below $2,200.

Updated open interest figures bear witness a $one.36-billion open interest for Ether options and another $500 million worth of futures contracts to expire on Friday. Meanwhile, Bitcoin'south options open up interest has grown to $2.64 billion, while some other $1.44 billion is set to expire in futures markets.

To empathize whether derivatives markets, mainly the quarterly expiries, concord such a significant impact on prices, investors demand to evaluate the past expiries.

December 2020 and March 2021 reflect diverging movements

In Nov 2020, Bitcoin initiated a strong rally, accumulating 75% gains ahead of the Dec expiry.

Bitcoin toll on December 2020 and March 2021 expiries. Source: TradingView

Over 102,000 Bitcoin options matured on Christmas day, but in that location was no credible impact. Instead, the bull trend continued as Bitcoin afterwards rallied another 69% in 12 days.

March 2021, on the other hand, showed completely different price activeness. Bitcoin's cost plunged 14% ahead of the options death, although it fully recovered over the next four days.

It is worth noting that on March 22, U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said, "Bitcoin is too volatile to be money" and is "backed past aught."

In that same week, billionaire fund managing director Ray Dalio raised concerns on a possible "U.S. Bitcoin ban."

March, June and September 2020 showed no signs of a dump ahead of death

If March 2021 could have built a possible case for dumping activity ahead of the expiry, the previous year faced an opposite motility.

Bitcoin price on March, June and Sep. 2020 expiries. Source: TradingView

Bitcoin went on a 31% balderdash run in the 10 days leading to the March 26, 2020, decease. However, an 11% correction took place the following day, therefore, potentially building a case for investors to cite "manipulation." Nevertheless, the 45% hash rate drop that surrounded the date partially explains the sell-off.

The March 26 death did not seem to significantly impact prices because Bitcoin dropped two% earlier the consequence and another ii% over the side by side two days. However, an verbal inverse pattern occurred on the September 2020 death when Bitcoin hiked two% ahead of Sept. 25 and continued to increment by two% over the following two days.

Options and futures expiries cannot be deemed bearish or bullish

Every bit the information from the previous five quarterly expiries show, there is absolutely no indication of a pump-and-dump (or inverse) movement alee of the derivative events.

For investors and traders waiting for a bottom confirmation, the answer probably lies in Bitcoin's hash charge per unit recomposition.

Ane should also account for Chinese over-the-counter traders reestablishing their fiat gateways subsequently the recent nationwide ban on cryptocurrency transactions.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and practise non necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading movement involves chance. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.